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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/1913| The December 2019 New Corona Virus Disease (SARS-CoV-2) Outbreak: A Behavioral Infectious Disease Policy Model | |
| Jeroen Struben. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.13.20063610 | |
| Since the December 2019 coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak began to spread globally, significant variation has emerged and sustained among responses and successes across countries. We outline a flexible behavioral, dynamic, and sectorial epidemic model of both virus transmission dynamics and endogenous policy and citizen responses. The model allows exploring distinct policy interventions, comprising general and targeted testing and social contact reduction efforts. Calibrating the model to the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic at the level of continents, we demonstrate how the early and extensive buildup of testing and social contact reduction efforts interplay to suppress the outbreak. Further, through a synthetic dynamic analysis of virus resurgence and of stratified case severity across population segments, we show the importance of targeted approaches for effectively reducing the multifaceted impacts of the outbreak. Finally, to aide critical collective involvement of policymakers, volunteers, citizens, and media for successfully controlling outbreaks as these, a version of the model is also available as a free web-based management flight simulator. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063610v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1100438.pdf | 4.04 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |