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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/174| Fear, Access, and the Real-Time Estimation of Etiological Parameters for Outbreaks of Novel Pathogens | |
| Eric Lofgren Nianpeng Li Pieter Blue David Weber Abdul-Aziz Yakubu Nina H Fefferman | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.19.20038729 | |
| Early analysis of outbreaks of novel pathogens to evaluate their likely public health impact depends on fitting predictive models to data gathered and updated in real-time. Both transmission rates and the critical threshold (i.e. the pathogen's 'reproductive number') are inferred by finding the values that provide the best model fit to reported case incidence. These models and inferred results are then the basic tools used for public health planning: how many people expected to be infected, at what scales of time and space, and whether potential intervention strategies impact disease transmission and spread. An underlying assumption, however, is that the ability to observe new cases is either constant, or at least constant relative to diagnostic test availability. We present a demonstration, discussion, and mathematical analysis of how this assumption of predictable observability in disease incidence can drastically impact model accuracy. We also demonstrate how to tailor estimations of these parameters to a few examples of different types of shifting influences acting on detection, depending on the likely sensitivity of surveillance systems to errors from sources such as clinical testing rates and differences in healthcare-seeking behavior from the public over time. Finally, we discuss the implications of these corrections for both historical and current outbreaks. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was conducted without external funding support. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data discussed in this manuscript is publicly available. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038729v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
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| fear, access and the real.pdf | 306.88 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |