Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/128| Estimation of Rift Valley fever virus spillover to humans during the Mayotte 2018-2019 epidemic | |
| Soihibou Combo Laurent Filleul Hassani Youssouf Marion Subiros W John Edmunds Chouanibou Youssouffi Laure Dommergues Gilles Le Godais Anton Camacho Raphaelle Metras Sebastian Funk Eric Cardinale Guillaume Fournie | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.14.20022996 | |
| Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, zoonotic, arboviral haemorrhagic fever threatening livestock and humans mainly in Africa. RVF is of global concern, having expanded its geographical range over the last decades. The impact of control measures on epidemic dynamics using empirical data has not been assessed. Here, we combined seroprevalence livestock and human RVF case data from the 2018-2019 epidemic in Mayotte, with a dynamic mathematical model. Using a Bayesian inference framework, we estimated viral transmission potential amongst livestock, and spillover from livestock to humans, through both direct contact and vector-mediated routes. Model simulations were used to assess the impact of vaccination on reducing the human epidemic size. Reactive vaccination immunising 20% of the livestock population reduced the number of human cases by 30%. To achieve a similar impact, delaying the vaccination by one month required using 50% more vaccine doses, and vaccinating only humans required 20 times as more as the number of doses for livestock. Finally, with 53.92% (95%CrI [44.76-61.29]) of livestock estimated to be immune at the end of the epidemic wave, viral re-emergence in the next rainy season (2019-2020) was unlikely. We present the first mathematical model for RVF fitted to real-world data to estimate virus transmission parameters, and able to inform potential control programmes. Human and animal health surveillance, and timely livestock vaccination appear to be key in reducing disease risk in humans. We furthermore demonstrate the value of a One Health quantitative approach to surveillance and control of zoonotic infectious diseases. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement RVF RT-PCR were conducted as part as the surveillance system on dengue-like syndrome since 2008, funded by Agence de Santé océan Indien. The animal sampling and analyses were funded by EAFRD (European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development) and RITA (Réseau dInnovation et de Transfert Agricole) Mayotte. WJE and AC were funded by the Department of Health and Social Care using UK Aid funding managed by the NIHR (VEEPED: PR-OD-1017-20007). The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Department of Health and Social Care. SF was funded by a Wellcome Senior Research Fellowship (210758/Z/18/Z). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Aggregated data will be made available by the authors following publication in a peer-review journal | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.14.20022996v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| estimation of rift.pdf | 524.92 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |