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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/101| A Gaussian model for the time development of the Sars-Cov-2 corona pandemic disease. Predictions for Germany made on March 30, 2020 | |
| Frank Schlickeiser Reinhard Schlickeiser | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.31.20048942 | |
| For Germany it is predicted that the first wave of the corona pandemic disease reaches its maximum of new infections on April 11th, 2020 +5.4-3.4 days with 90 percent confidence. With a delay of about 7 days the maximum demand on breathing machines in hospitals occurs on April 18th, 2020 +5.4-3.4 days. The first pandemic wave ends in Germany end of May 2020. The predictions are based on the assumption of a Gaussian time evolution well justified by the central limit theorem of statistics. The width and the maximum time and thus the duration of this Gaussian distribution are determined from a statistical Ξ2-fit to the observed doubling times before March 28, 2020. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement None ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All used data are publically available | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20048942v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| A gaussian model for the time development.pdf | 384.58 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |