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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/99| Growth rate and acceleration analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic reveals the effect of public health measures in real time | |
| Jose Fernando Garcia Adam Taiti Harth Utsunomiya Rafaela Beatriz Pintor Torrecilha Silvana Cassia Paulan Marco Milanesi Yuri Tani Utsunomiya | |
| Rafaela Beatriz Pintor Torrecilha | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.30.20047688 | |
| We used moving regression to model the growth rate (cases/day) and acceleration (cases/day2) of COVID-19 cases in 123 countries as of March 25th 2020. In countries entering stationary growth (China and South Korea) decline in acceleration was observable up to 1 week after severe restriction to human mobility was adopted as a preventive measure. Deceleration was detectable within 2 weeks, whereas stationary growth was reached within 6 weeks. These results corroborate that mass social isolation is a highly effective measure against the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2. We also found that the impact of public health measures could be evaluated in seemingly real-time by monitoring COVID-19 growth curves. Moreover, reasonable daily predictions of new cases were obtained (R2 ~ 0.95). Apart from the analysis of prevalence partitioned by country, moving regression can be easily applied to city, state, region or arbitrary territory data to help monitoring the local behavior of COVID-19 cases. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Clinical Trial This study does not involve clinical trials ### Funding Statement This study did not receive financial support ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The data in this study was obtained from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and is publicly available at https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-geographic-disbtribution-worldwide-2020-03-25.xlsx (accessed on March 25th 2020). The source code for the Shiny App used for data analysis is found in our GitHub repository: https://github.com/adamtaiti/SARS-CoV-2. <https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-geographic-disbtribution-worldwide-2020-03-25.xlsx> <https://github.com/adamtaiti/SARS-CoV-2> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047688v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| growth rate.pdf | 1.53 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |