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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/96| Meteorological factors correlate with transmission of 2019-nCoV: Proof of incidence of novel coronavirus pneumonia in Hubei Province, China | |
| Linyuan Zhang Zhihua Ren Caihong Xing Peihuan Qiao Bing Chang Jianfeng Li | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.01.20050526 | |
| Objective: many potential factors contribute to the outbreak of COVID-19. The aim of this study was to explore the effects of various meteorological factors on the incidence of COVID-19. Methods: Taking Hubei province of China as an example,where COVID-19 was first reported and there were the most cases, we collected 53 days of cases up to March 10(total 67773 confirmed cases).COVID-19 confirmed cases were retrieved from the official website of Hubei Health Commission. Ten meteorological parameters were provided by China meteorological administration,including average pressure (hPa), average temperature (°C) , maximum temperature, minimum temperature (°C), average water vapor pressure (hPa), average relative humidity (%),etc.Cross correlation analysis and linear regression were used to judge the relationship of meteorological factors and increment of COVID-19 confirmed cases. Results: Under 95% CI, the increment of confirmed cases in Hubei were significantly correlated with four meteorological parameters of average pressure, average temperature, minimum temperature and average water vapor pressure (equivalent to absolute humidity).The average pressure was positively correlated with the increment (r=+0.358,p=0.010).The negative correlations included average temperature (r=-0.306,p=0.029), minimum air temperature (r=-0.347,p=0.013), average water vapor pressure (r=-0.326,p=0.020). The linear regression results show if minimum temperature increases by 1°C, the incremental confirmed cases in Hubei decreases by 72.470 units on average. Conclusion: The incidence of COVID-19 was significantly correlated with average pressure, average temperature, minimum temperature and average water vapor pressure. It is positively correlated with the average pressure and negatively correlated with the other three parameters. Compared with relative humidity, 2019-nCov is more sensitive to water vapor pressure. The reason why the epidemic situation in Hubei expanded rapidly is significantly related to the climate characteristics of low temperature and dryness of Hubei in winter. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement There was no funding support in this study. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The data produced in this study can be found in the Supplementary information. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050526v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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