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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/86| A Covid-19 case mortality rate without time delay systematics | |
| Richard Lieu Siobhan Quenby Ally Bi-zhu Jiang | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.31.20049452 | |
| Concerning the two approaches to the Covid-19 case mortality rate published in the literature, namely computing the ratio of (a) the daily number of deaths to a time delayed daily number of confirmed infections; and (b) the cumulative number of deaths to confirmed infections up to a certain time, both numbers having been acquired in the middle of an outbreak, it is shown that each suffers from systematic error of a different source. We further show that in the absence of detailed knowledge of the time delay distribution of (a), the true case mortality rate is obtained by pursuing method (b) at the end of the outbreak when the fate of every case has decisively been rendered. The approach is then employed to calculate the mean case mortality rate of 13 regions of China where every case has already been resolved. This leads to a mean rate of 0.527 +/- 0.001 %. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No funding support for this preprint. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All the data used by this preprint are in the public domain (e.g. WHO, JHU, Worldometer). | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20049452v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A covid-19 case mortality.pdf | 71.29 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |