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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/84| The impacts of diagnostic capability and prevention measures on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan | |
| Hsiang-Yu Yuan Jingbo LIANG | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.31.20049387 | |
| Background: Although the rapidly rising transmission trend of COVID-19 in Wuhan has been controlled in late February 2020, the outbreak still caused a global pandemic afterward. Understanding Wuhan COVID-19 transmission dynamics and the effects of prevention approaches is of significant importance for containing virus global transmission. However, most of the recent studies focused on the early outbreaks without considering improvements in diagnostic capability and effects of prevention measures together, thus the estimated results may only reflect the facts in a given period of time. Methods: We constructed a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined-recovered (SEIQR) model, embedding with latent periods under different prevention measures and proportions of documented infections to characterize the Wuhan COVID-19 transmission cross different stages of the outbreak. The epidemiological parameters were estimated using a particle filtering approach. Results: Our model successfully reproduced the dynamics of the Wuhan local epidemic with two peaks on February 4 and February 12 separately. Prevention measures determined the time of reaching the first peak and caused an 87% drop in the R_t from 3.09 (95% CI, 2.10 to 3.63) to 0.41 (95% CI, 0.18 to 0.66). An improved diagnostic capability created the second peak and increased the number of documented infections. The proportion of documented infections changed from 23% (95% CI, 20% to 26%) to 37% (95% CI, 33% to 41%) when the detection kits were released after January 26, and later up to 73% (95% CI, 64% to 80%) after the diagnostic criteria were improved. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement We thank for funding supports from the City University of Hong Kong (#7200573 and #9610416). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The daily numbers of newly confirmed cases from January 11 to March 10 were collected from the bulletins of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission and Health Commission of Hubei Province. <http://wjw.wuhan.gov.cn/front/web/list3rd/yes/802> <http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20049387v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| The impacts of diagnostic.pdf | 1.32 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |