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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/81| Confronting COVID-19: Surging critical care capacity in Italy | |
| Rafael Castro Delgado Morten Gram Pedersen Matteo Meneghini Jose Manuel Rodriguez Llanes Pedro Arcos Gonzalez | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.01.20050237 | |
| The current spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Europe threats Italian capacity and that of other national health systems to effectively respond to the needs of patients who require intensive care, mostly due to pneumonia and derived complications from concomitant disease and age. Predicting the surge in capacity has proved difficult due to the requirement of a subtle combination of diverse expertise and difficult choices to be made on selecting robust measures of critical care utilization, and parsimonious epidemic modelling which account for changing government measures. We modelled the required surge capacity of ICU beds in Italy exclusively for COVID-19 patients at epidemic peak. Because new measures were imposed by the Italian government, suspending nearly all non-essential sectors of the economy, we included the potential impacts of these new measures. The modelling considered those hospitalized and home isolated as quarantined, mimicking conditions on the ground. The percentage of patients in intensive care (out of the daily active confirmed cases) required for our calculations were chosen based on clinical relevance and robustness, and this number was consistently on average 9.9% from February 24 to March 6, 2020. Five different scenarios were produced (two positive and three negative). Under most positive scenarios, in which R is reduced below 1 (i.e., 0.71), the number of daily active confirmed cases will peak at nearly 89 000 by the early days of April and the total number of intensive care beds exclusively dedicated to COVID-19 patients required in Italy estimated at 8791. Worst scenarios produce unmanageable numbers. Our results suggest that the decisive moment for Italy has come. Jointly reinforcement by the government of the measures approved so far, including home confinement, but even more important the full commitment of the civil society in respecting home confinement, social distancing and hygiene will be key in the next days. Yet, even under the best circumstances, intensive care capacity will need to get closer to 9000 units in the country to avoid preventable mortality. So far, only strong measures were effective in Italy, as shown by our modelling, and this may offer an opportunity to European countries to accelerate their interventions. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement Research at University of Padova partly supported by MIUR (Italian Minister for Education) under the initiative "Departments of Excellence" (Law 232/2016). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All data used in this article is public and open access, free of charge. <https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050237v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Confronting COVID.pdf | 922.96 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |