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The spreading of Covid-19 in Mexico: A diffusional approach
CARLOS GILBERTO AGUILAR MADERA
GILBERTO ESPINOSA PAREDES
ERIK CESAR HERRERA HERNANDEZ
JORGE ALBERTO BRIONES CARRILLO
VICTOR MATIAS PEREZ
JOSE VALENTE FLORES CANO
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104555
In this work, we analyze the spreading of Covid-19 in Mexico using the spatial SEIRD epidemiologic model. We use the information of the 32 regions (States) that conform the country, such as population density, verified infected cases, and deaths in each State. We extend the SEIRD compartmental epidemiologic with diffusion mechanisms in the exposed and susceptible populations. We use the Fickian law with the diffusion coefficient proportional to the population density to encompass the diffusion effects. The numerical results suggest that the epidemiologic model demands time-dependent parameters to incorporate non-monotonous behavior in the actual data in the global dynamic. The diffusional model proposed in this work has great potential in predicting the virus spreading on different scales, i.e., local, national, and between countries, since the complete reduction in people mobility is impossible.
Results in Physics
16-07-2021
Artículo
https://www.sciencedirect.com/
Inglés
Carlos G. Aguilar-Madera, Gilberto Espinosa-Paredes, E.C. Herrera-Hernández, Jorge A. Briones Carrillo, J. Valente Flores-Cano, Víctor Matías-Pérez, The spreading of Covid-19 in Mexico: A diffusional approach, Results in Physics, Volume 27, 2021, 104555, ISSN 2211-3797, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104555. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379721006574)
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
Versión publicada
publishedVersion - Versión publicada
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