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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/79| Estimation of the Final Size of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Pakistan | |
| Syed Sibgatullah Faiza Syed | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369 | |
| The COVID-19 infections in Pakistan are spreading at an exponential rate and a point may soon be reached where rigorous prevention measures would need to be adopted. Mathematical models can help define the scale of an epidemic and the rate at which an infection can spread in a community. We used an SIR model to predict the magnitude of the COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan and compared the numbers with the reported cases on the national database. Our results indicate that Pakistan could hit peak number of infectious cases on May 26th, 2020 and by June 24th, 2020, 90% of the population will have become infected with the virus if policy interventions seeking to curb this infection are not adopted aggressively. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The study was completed without any external funding. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Kindly contact the corresponding author for additional data. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050369v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimation of the final size.pdf | 332.91 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |