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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/78| COVID-19 Outbreak in Oman: Model-Driven Impact Analysis and Challenges | |
| Umar Farooq Kashif Zia | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.02.20050666 | |
| Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of the virus, but also, takes care of population and mobility data. The model is calibrated based on epidemic data and events specifically of Sultanate of Oman, which can easily be generalized. The simulation results are quite disturbing, indicating that, during a process of stringent social distancing and testing strategies, a small perturbation can lead to quite undesirable outcomes. The simulation results, although consistent in expected outcomes across changing parameters' values, also indicate a substantial mismatch with real numbers. An analysis of what can be the reason of this mismatch is also performed. Within these contradictions, for Oman, regarding the eradication of epidemic, the future is not extremely alarming. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement No funding. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes No data that can be provided. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.02.20050666v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID-19 Outbreak.pdf | 645.28 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |