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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/77| Exponential phase of covid19 expansion is not driven by climate at global scale | |
| Marco Tulio Pacheco Coelho Joao Fabricio Mota Rodrigues Anderson Matos Medina Paulo Scalco Levi Carina Terribile Bruno Vilela Jose Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho Ricardo Dobrovolski | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.02.20050773 | |
| The pandemic state of COVID-19 caused by the SARS CoV-2 put the world in quarantine and is causing an unprecedented economic crisis. However, COVID-19 is spreading in different rates at different countries. Here, we tested the effect of three classes of predictors, i.e., socioeconomic, climatic and transport, on the rate of daily increase of COVID-19. We found that global connections, represented by countries importance in the global air transportation network, is the main explanation for the growth rate of COVID-19 in different countries. Climate, geographic distance and socioeconomics did not affect this big picture analysis. Geographic distance and climate were significant barriers in the past but were surpassed by the human engine that allowed us to colonize almost every corner on Earth. Based on our global analysis, the global network of air transportation could lead to a worst-case scenario of synchronous global pandemic if board control measures in international airports were not taken and are not sustained during this pandemic. Despite all limitations of a global analysis, our results indicate that the current claims that the growth rate of COVID-19 may be lower in tropical countries should be taken very carefully, at risk to disturb well-established and effective policy of social isolation that may help to avoid higher mortality rates due to collapse of national health systems. This is the case of Brazil, a well-connected tropical country that presents the second highest increase rate of COVID-19 and might experience a serious case of human-induced disasters if decision makers take into consideration unsupported claims of the growth rate of COVID-19 might be lower in tropical countries. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This paper was developed in the context of the human macroecology project on the National Institute of Science and Technology (INCT) in Ecology, Evolution and Biodiversity Conservation, supported by CNPq and FAPEG. JAFDF, RD, LCT are also supported by CNPq productivity scholarships ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All epidemiological, climatic, socioeconomic and transport data used in our study is available to download in online databases. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.02.20050773v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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