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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/7694| Increasing viral transmission paradoxically reduces progression rates to severe COVID-19 during endemic transition | |
| Hyukpyo Hong Ji Yun NOH Hyojung Lee Sunhwa Choi Boseung Choi Jae Kyoung Kim Eui-Cheol Shin | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.09.22270633 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.09.22270633v1 | |
| Natural infection with SARS-CoV-2 or vaccination induces virus-specific immunity protecting hosts from infection and severe disease. While the infection-preventing immunity gradually declines, the severity-reducing immunity is relatively well preserved. Here, based on the different longevity of these distinct immunities, we develop a mathematical model to estimate courses of endemic transition of COVID-19. Our analysis demonstrates that high viral transmission unexpectedly reduces the rates of progression to severe COVID-19 during the course of endemic transition despite increased numbers of infection cases. Our study also shows that high viral transmission amongst populations with high vaccination coverages paradoxically accelerates the endemic transition of COVID-19 with reduced numbers of severe cases. These results provide critical insights for driving public health policies in the era of living with COVID-19. | |
| medRxiv and bioRxiv | |
| 09-02-2022 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/ | |
| Inglés | |
| Epidemia COVID-19 | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Increasing viral transmission paradoxically reduces progression rates to severe COVID 19.pdf | 329.89 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |