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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/7693| Model-based estimates of deaths averted and cost per life saved by scaling-up mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in low and lower-middle income countries in the COVID-19 Omicron variant era | |
| Alexandra Savinkina Alyssa Bilinksi Meagan Fitzpatrick A. David Paltiel Zain Rizvi Joshua Salomon Thomas Thornhill IV Gregg Gonsalves | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.02.08.22270465 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.08.22270465v1 | |
| Background: While almost 60% of the world has received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, the global distribution of vaccination has not been equitable. Only 4% of the population of low-income countries has received a full primary vaccine series, compared to over 70% of the population of high-income nations. Methods: We used economic and epidemiologic models, parameterized with public data on global vaccination and COVID-19 deaths, to estimate the potential benefits of scaling up vaccination programs in low and lower-middle income countries (LIC/LMIC) in 2022 in the context of global spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV2. Outcomes were expressed as number of avertable deaths through vaccination, costs of scale-up, and cost per death averted. We conducted sensitivity analyses over a wide range of parameter estimates to account for uncertainty around key inputs. Findings: Global scale up of vaccination to provide two doses of mRNA vaccine to everyone in LIC/LMIC would cost $35.5 billion and avert 1.3 million deaths from COVID-19, at a cost of $26,900 per death averted. Scaling up vaccination to provide three doses of mRNA vaccine to everyone in LIC/LMIC would cost $61.2 billion and avert 1.5 million deaths from COVID-19 at a cost of $40,800 per death averted. Lower estimated infection fatality ratios, higher cost-per-dose, and lower vaccine effectiveness or uptake lead to higher cost-per-death averted estimates in the analysis. Interpretation: Scaling up COVID-19 global vaccination would avert millions of COVID-19 deaths and represents a reasonable investment in the context of the value of a statistical life (VSL). Given the magnitude of expected mortality facing LIC/LMIC without vaccination, this effort should be an urgent priority. | |
| medRxiv and bioRxiv | |
| 09-02-2022 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/ | |
| Inglés | |
| Epidemia COVID-19 | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Model based estimates of deaths averted and cost per life saved by scaling up.pdf | 519.37 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |