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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/7634| Projecting the seasonality of endemic COVID-19 | |
| Jeffrey Townsend April Lamb Hayley Hassler Pratha Sah Aia Alvarez Nishio Cameron Nguyen Alison Galvani Nishio Alex Dornburg | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.01.26.22269905 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.26.22269905v1 | |
| Successive waves of infection by SARS-CoV-2 have left little doubt that this virus will transition to an endemic disease 1,2. Projections of the endemic seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 transmission are crucial to informed public health policy 3. Such projections are not only essential to well-timed interventions and the preparation of healthcare systems for synchronous surges with other respiratory viruses 4, but also to the elimination of seasonality as a confounder in the identification of surges that are occurring due to viral evolution, changes in host immunity, or other non-seasonal factors. However, the less than two-year duration of SARS-CoV-2 circulation, pandemic dynamics, and heterogeneous implementation of interventions have grievously complicated evaluations of its seasonality 5. Here we estimate the impending endemic seasonality of SARS-CoV-2 in global population centers via a novel phylogenetic ancestral and descendent states approach 6 that leverages long-term data on the incidence of circulating coronaviruses. Our results validate a major concern that endemic COVID-19 will typically surge coincident with other high-morbidity and -mortality respiratory virus infections such as influenza and RSV 7. In temperate locales in the Northern Hemisphere, we identify spatiotemporal surges of incidences that range from October through January in New York to January through March in Yamagata, Japan. This knowledge of likely spatiotemporal surges of COVID-19 is fundamental to optimal timing of public health interventions that anticipate the impending endemicity of this disease and mitigate SARS-CoV-2 transmission. | |
| medRxiv and bioRxiv | |
| 28-01-2022 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org | |
| Inglés | |
| Epidemia COVID-19 | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Projecting the seasonality of endemic COVID 19.pdf | 4.5 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |