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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/76| Inflow restrictions can prevent epidemics when contact tracing efforts are effective but have limited capacity | |
| Tom Britton Hannes Malmberg | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.04.01.20050401 | |
| When a region tries to prevent an outbreak of an epidemic, like that of COVID-19, two broad strategies are initially available: limiting the inflow of infected cases using travel restrictions and quarantines, and reducing transmissions from inflowing cases using contact tracing and community interventions. A large number of papers have used epidemiological models to argue that inflow restrictions are unlikely to be effective. We conduct a mathematical analysis using a simple epidemiological model and perform simulations that show this conclusion can change if we relax the assumption of unlimited capacity in containment efforts such as contact tracing. In particular, when contact tracing is effective, but the system is close to being overwhelmed, moderate travel restrictions can have very large effects on the probability of an epidemic. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement Swedish Research Council, grant 2015-05015 ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Code is available upon request. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20050401v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Inflow restrictions can prevent.pdf | 447.66 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |