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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/759| The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China | |
| Lau, H Khosrawipour, V Kocbach, P Mikolajczyk, A Schubert, J Bania, J Khosrawipour, T | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| BACKGROUND: With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China. China itself has imposed a lockdown of the population of Wuhan as well as the entire Hubei province. However, whether these two enormous measures have led to significant changes in the spread of COVID-19 cases remains unclear.METHODS: We analyzed available data on the development of confirmed domestic and international COVID-19 cases before and after lockdown measures. We evaluated the correlation of domestic air traffic to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determined the growth curves of COVID-19 cases within China before and after lockdown as well as after changes in COVID-19 diagnostic criteria.RESULTS: Our findings indicate a significant increase in doubling time from 2days (95% Confidence Interval, CI): 1.9-2.6), to 4days (95% CI: 3.5-4.3), after imposing lockdown. A further increase is detected after changing diagnostic and testing methodology to 19.3 (95% CI: 15.1-26.3), respectively. Moreover, the correlation between domestic air traffic and COVID-19 spread became weaker following lockdown (before lockdown: r = 0.98, p < 0.05 vs. after lockdown: r = 0.91, p = NS).CONCLUSIONS: A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seem to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19. | |
| Journal of Travel Medicine | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://coronavirus.1science.com/item/53776b91b008f2aeaa9ff63afef92daea428f2a5 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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