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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/7557| Predicting COVID-19 severity using major risk factors and received vaccines | |
| Ariel Israel Alejandro Schaffer Eugene Merzon ilan green Eli Magen Avivit Golan Cohen Shlomo Vinker Eytan Ruppin | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.31.21268575 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.31.21268575v2 | |
| Background Vaccines are highly effective in preventing severe disease and death from COVID-19, and new medications that can reduce severity of disease have been approved. However, many countries are facing limited supply of vaccine doses and medications. A model estimating the probabilities for hospitalization and mortality according to individual risk factors and vaccine doses received could help prioritize vaccination and yet scarce medications to maximize lives saved and reduce the burden on hospitalization facilities. Methods Electronic health records from 101,039 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2, since the beginning of the pandemic and until November 30, 2021 were extracted from a national healthcare organization in Israel. Logistic regression models were built to estimate the risk for subsequent hospitalization and death based on the number of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine doses received and few major risk factors (age, sex, body mass index, hemoglobin A1C, kidney function, and presence of hypertension, pulmonary disease and malignancy). Results The models built predict the outcome of newly infected individuals with remarkable accuracy: area under the curve was 0.889 for predicting hospitalization, and 0.967 for predicting mortality. Even when a breakthrough infection occurs, having received three vaccination doses significantly reduces the risk of hospitalization by 66% (OR=0.339) and of death by 78% (OR=0.223). Conclusions The models enable rapid identification of individuals at high risk for hospitalization and death when infected. These patients can be prioritized to receive booster vaccination and the yet scarce medications. A calculator based on these models is made publicly available on http://covidest.web.app | |
| medRxiv and bioRxiv | |
| 03-01-2022 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| Inglés | |
| Epidemia COVID-19 | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Predicting COVID 19 severity using major risk factors and received vaccines.pdf | 282.05 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |