Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/7521| The age-stratified analytical model for the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic | |
| Felix Mairanowski | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.07.13.21260459 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.13.21260459v1 | |
| The previously developed ASILV model for calculating epidemic spread under conditions of lockdown and mass vaccination was modified to analyse the intensity of COVID-19 infection growth in the allocated age groups. Comparison of the results of calculations of the epidemic spread, as well as the values of the seven-day incidence values with the corresponding observation data, shows their good correspondence for each of the selected age groups. The greatest influence on the overall spread of the epidemic is in the 20-40 age groups. The relatively low level of vaccination and the high intensity of contact in these age groups contributes to the emergence of new waves of the epidemic, which is especially active when the virus mutates and the lockdown conditions are relaxed. The intensity of the epidemic in the 90+ age group has some peculiarities compared to other groups, which may be explained by differences in contact patterns among individuals in this age group compared to others. Approximate ratios for estimating mortality as a function of the intensity of infection for individual age groups are provided. The proposed stratified ASILV model by age group will allow more detailed and accurate prediction of the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, including when new, more transmissible versions of the virus mutate and emerge. | |
| medRxiv and bioRxiv | |
| 15-07-2021 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| Inglés | |
| Epidemia COVID-19 | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The age stratified analytical model for the spread of the COVID 19 epidemic.pdf | 783.83 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |