Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/7386| Assessing the potential impact of immunity waning on the dynamics of COVID-19: an endemic model of COVID-19 | |
| Rabiu Musa Sarafa Iyaniwura | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.23.21265421 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.23.21265421v1 | |
| We developed an endemic model of COVID-19 to assess the impact of vaccination and immunity waning on the dynamics of the disease. Our model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation and bi-stability, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium. The epidemiological implication of this is that the control reproduction number being less than unity is no longer sufficient to guarantee disease eradication. We showed that this phenomenon could be eliminated by either increasing the vaccine efficacy or by reducing the disease transmission rate (adhering to non-pharmaceutical interventions). Furthermore, we numerically investigated the impacts of vaccination and waning of both vaccine-induced immunity and post-recovery immunity on the disease dynamics. Our simulation results show that the waning of vaccine-induced immunity has more effect on the disease dynamics relative to post-recovery immunity waning, and suggests that more emphasis should be on reducing the waning of vaccine-induced immunity to eradicate COVID-19. | |
| medRxiv | |
| 23-10-2021 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| Inglés | |
| Epidemia COVID-19 | |
| Investigadores Otros Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Assessing the potential impact of immunity waning on the dynamics of COVID 19 an endemic modelo of COVID 19.pdf | 2.39 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |