Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://covid-19.conacyt.mx/jspui/handle/1000/7386
Assessing the potential impact of immunity waning on the dynamics of COVID-19: an endemic model of COVID-19
Rabiu Musa
Sarafa Iyaniwura
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial
https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.23.21265421
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.23.21265421v1
We developed an endemic model of COVID-19 to assess the impact of vaccination and immunity waning on the dynamics of the disease. Our model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation and bi-stability, where a stable disease-free equilibrium co-exists with a stable endemic equilibrium. The epidemiological implication of this is that the control reproduction number being less than unity is no longer sufficient to guarantee disease eradication. We showed that this phenomenon could be eliminated by either increasing the vaccine efficacy or by reducing the disease transmission rate (adhering to non-pharmaceutical interventions). Furthermore, we numerically investigated the impacts of vaccination and waning of both vaccine-induced immunity and post-recovery immunity on the disease dynamics. Our simulation results show that the waning of vaccine-induced immunity has more effect on the disease dynamics relative to post-recovery immunity waning, and suggests that more emphasis should be on reducing the waning of vaccine-induced immunity to eradicate COVID-19.
medRxiv
23-10-2021
Preimpreso
www.medrxiv.org
Inglés
Epidemia COVID-19
Investigadores
Otros
Público en general
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
Versión publicada
publishedVersion - Versión publicada
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos

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