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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/7137| Characterizing all-cause excess mortality patterns during COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico | |
| Sushma Dahal Juan Banda Ana Bento Kenji Mizumoto Gerardo Chowell | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.02.21252763 | |
| Background The low testing rates, compounded by reporting delays, hinders the estimation of the mortality burden associated with the COVID-19 pandemic based on surveillance data alone. A more reliable picture of the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality can be derived by estimating excess deaths above an expected level of death. In this study we aim to estimate the absolute and relative mortality impact of COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico in 2020 by gender and two geographic regions: Mexico City and the rest of the country. Methods We obtained mortality time series due to all causes for Mexico, and by gender, and geographic region using epidemiological weeks from January to December 2020 and for preceding 5 years. We also compiled data on COVID-19 related morbidity and mortality to assess the timing and intensity of the pandemic in Mexico. We assembled weekly series of the number of tweets about ‘death’ from Mexico to assess the correlation between people’s media interaction about ‘death’ and the rise in pandemic deaths. We estimated all-cause excess mortality rates and mortality rate ratio increase over baseline by fitting Serfling regression models. Results The COVID-19 pandemic excess mortality rates per 10,000 population in Mexico between March 1, 2020 and January 2, 2021 was estimated at 26.10. The observed total number of deaths due to COVID-19 was 128,886 which is 38.64% of the total estimated excess deaths. Males had about 2-fold higher excess mortality rate (33.99) compared to females (18.53). The excess mortality rate for Mexico City (63.54) was about 2.7-fold higher than the rest of the country (23.25). Similarly, the mortality rate ratio relative to baseline was highest for Mexico City (RR: 2.09). There was no significant correlation between weekly number of tweets on ‘death’ and the weekly all-cause excess mortality rates (ρ=0.309 (95% CI: 0.010, 0.558, p-value=0.043). Conclusion The excess mortality rate of 26.10 per 10,000 population corresponds to a total of 333,538 excess deaths in Mexico between March 1, 2020 to January 2, 2021. COVID-19 accounted for only 38.21% of the total excess deaths, which reflects either the effect of low testing rates in Mexico, or the surge in number of deaths due to other causes. | |
| medRxiv | |
| 05-03-2021 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org | |
| Inglés | |
| Epidemia COVID-19 | |
| Investigadores Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Characterizing all cause excess mortality.pdf | 741.79 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |