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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/7074| Predicting mortality due to SARS-CoV-2: A mechanistic score relating obesity and diabetes to COVID-19 outcomes in Mexico | |
| OMAR YAXMEHEN BELLO CHAVOLLA Jessica Paola Bahena López Neftali Eduardo Antonio Villa Arsenio Vargas Vázquez ARMANDO GONZALEZ DIAZ Alejandro Márquez Salinas Carlos A. Fermín Martínez J. Jesús Naveja Carlos A. Aguilar-Salinas | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.20.20072223 | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.20.20072223v4 | |
| BACKGROUND The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak poses challenge to healthcare systems due to high complication rates in patients with cardiometabolic diseases. Here, we identify risk factors and propose a clinical score to predict COVID-19 lethality, including specific factors for diabetes and obesity and its role in improving risk prediction. METHODS We obtained data of confirmed and negative COVID-19 cases and their demographic and health characteristics from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of Mexican Ministry of Health. We investigated specific risk factors associated to COVID-19 positivity and mortality and explored the impact of diabetes and obesity on modifying COVID-19 related lethality. Finally, we built a clinical score to predict COVID-19 lethality. RESULTS Among 177,133 subjects at May 18th, 2020, we observed 51,633 subjects with SARS-CoV-2 and 5,332 deaths. Risk factors for lethality in COVID-19 include early-onset diabetes, obesity, COPD, advanced age, hypertension, immunosuppression, and CKD; we observed that obesity mediates 49.5% of the effect of diabetes on COVID-19 lethality. Early-onset diabetes conferred an increased risk of hospitalization and obesity conferred an increased risk for ICU admission and intubation. Our predictive score for COVID-19 lethality included age ≥65 years, diabetes, early-onset diabetes, obesity, age <40 years, CKD, hypertension, and immunosuppression and significantly discriminates lethal from non-lethal COVID-19 cases (c-statistic=0.823). RESULTS Here, we propose a mechanistic approach to evaluate risk for complications and lethality attributable to COVID-19 considering the effect of obesity and diabetes in Mexico. Our score offers a clinical tool for quick determination of high-risk susceptibility patients in a first contact scenario. | |
| medRxiv and bioRxiv | |
| 22-05-2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| Inglés | |
| Epidemia COVID-19 | |
| Público en general | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Versión publicada | |
| publishedVersion - Versión publicada | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
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| Predicting mortality due to SARS COV 2_A Mechanistic score relating obesity and diabetes to COVID 19 outcomes in Mexico.pdf | 505.95 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |