Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://covid-19.conacyt.mx/jspui/handle/1000/697
Preliminary prediction of the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV
Zhou, T
Liu, Q
Yang, Z
Liao, J
Yang, K
Bai, W
Lu, X
Zhang, W
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
OBJECTIVES: To estimate the basic reproduction number of the Wuhan novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV).METHODS: Based on the susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) compartment model and the assumption that the infectious cases with symptoms occurred before 26 January, 2020 are resulted from free propagation without intervention, we estimate the basic reproduction number of 2019-nCoV according to the reported confirmed cases and suspected cases, as well as the theoretical estimated number of infected cases by other research teams, together with some epidemiological determinants learned from the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).RESULTS: The basic reproduction number fall between 2.8 and 3.3 by using the real-time reports on the number of 2019-nCoV-infected cases from People's Daily in China and fall between 3.2 and 3.9 on the basis of the predicted number of infected cases from international colleagues.CONCLUSIONS: The early transmission ability of 2019-nCoV is close to or slightly higher than SARS. It is a controllable disease with moderate to high transmissibility. Timely and effective control measures are needed to prevent the further transmissions.
Journal of Evidence-Based Medicine
2020
Preimpreso
https://coronavirus.1science.com/item/c78814d4226af528dccab6319b0a17f87e7c3bef
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos

Upload archives


File SizeFormat 
101271.pdf618.92 kBAdobe PDFView/Open