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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5705| Estimating the reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran using epidemic modeling | |
| Sahafizadeh, Ebrahim. Sartoli, Samaneh. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.20.20038422 | |
| Background: As reported by Iranian governments, the first cases of coronavirus (COVID-19) infections confirmed in Qom, Iran on February 19, 2020 (30 Bahman 1398). The number of identified cases afterward increased rapidly and the novel coronavirus spread to all provinces of the country. This study aimed to fit an epidemic model to the reported cases data to estimate the basic reproduction number (R_0) of COVID-19 in Iran. Methods: We used data from February 21, 2020, to March 18, 2020, on the number of cases reported by Iranian governments and we employed the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Removed) epidemic spreading model to fit the transmission model to the reported cases data by tuning the parameters in order to estimate the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Iran. Results: The value of reproduction number was estimated 4.86 in the first week and 4.5 in the second and decreasing from 4.29 to 2.1 in the third and fourth weeks. Conclusions: The results indicate that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 is significantly larger than one. Based on the results, it is necessary to implement social distancing and a strict restriction on travelling to control the outbreak especially on Nowruz (Persian New Year). | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20038422v3.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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