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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5634| The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak | |
| Park, Sang Woo. Cornforth, Daniel M. Dushoff, Jonathan. Weitz, Joshua S. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.09.20033514 | |
| We assess the impact of asymptomatic transmission on epidemic potential of novel respiratory pathogens (like COVID-19) -- as measured both by the basic reproduction number (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases generated by an average primary case in a fully susceptible population) and the fraction of new secondary cases attributable to asymptomatic individuals. We show that the impact of asymptomatic transmission depends on generation intervals (i.e., time between when an individual is infected and when that individual infects another person). If the generation-interval distribution of asymptomatic transmission differs from that of symptomatic transmission, then estimates of the basic reproduction number which do not explicitly account for asymptomatic cases may be systematically biased. Specifically, if asymptomatic cases have a shorter generation interval than symptomatic cases, R_0 will be over-estimated, and if they have a longer generation interval, R_0 will be under-estimated. We also show that as the length of asymptomatic generation intervals increase, estimates of the realized proportion of asymptomatic transmission during the exponential phase of the epidemic decrease. Our analysis provides a rationale for assessing the duration of asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 in addition to their prevalence in the population. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033514v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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