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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5602| A Computational Model for Estimating the Progression of COVID-19 Cases in the US West and East Coasts | |
| Yeo, Yao Yu. Yeo, Yao-Rui. Yeo, Wan-Jin. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.24.20043026 | |
| The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is of global concern and has recently emerged in the US. In this paper, we construct a stochastic variant of the SEIR model to make a quasi-worst-case scenario prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US West and East Coasts. The model is then fitted to current data and implemented using Runge-Kutta methods. Our computation results predict that the number of new cases would peak around mid-April and begin to abate by July, and that the number of cases of COVID-19 might be significantly mitigated by having greater numbers of functional testing kits available for screening. The model also showed how small changes in variables can make large differences in outcomes and highlights the importance of healthcare preparedness during pandemics. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20043026v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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