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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5557| Covid-19 health care demand and mortality in Sweden in response to non-pharmaceutical (NPIs) mitigation and suppression scenarios | |
| Rocklov, Joacim. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.20.20039594 | |
| While the outbreak in China is now contained, since mid March 2020, the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic is in Europe, with Italy reporting more deaths than China. Various European countries have seen an exponential growth in daily new cases, and unless strong reductions in transmission, the wave is expected to hit all of Europe by the end of March 2020. There is an urgent need to reduce transmission and thus reduce the growth rate of this epidemic, reduce the height of the epidemic peak and the peak demand on healthcare services, as well as reduce the total number of infected persons. Here we estimate the impact of COVID-19 on the Swedish population at the municipality level, considering demography and human mobility under scenarios of mitigation and suppression. We estimate the timelines of incidence, hospitalization rates, the intensive care (ICU) need, and the mortality in relation to the current Swedish ICU capacity, and costs of care. We further investigate the sensitivity to various degrees of potential underreporting on the estimates. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20039594v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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