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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5414| Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of public health measures to control COVID-19: a modelling study | |
| Wang, Qiang. Shi, Naiyang. Huang, Jinxin. Cui, Tingting. Yang, Liuqing. Ai, Jing. Ji, Hong. Xu, Ke. Ahmad, Tauseef. Bao, Changjun. Jin, Hui. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.20.20039644 | |
| Background The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China, which caused a respiratory disease known as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its discovery, the virus has spread to over 100 countries and claimed more than 4000 deaths. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of various response public health measures. Method The stochastic agent-based model was used to simulate the process of COVID-19 outbreak in scenario I (imported one case) and II (imported four cases) with a series of public health measures, involving the personal protection, isolation-and-quarantine, gathering restriction, and community containment. The virtual community was constructed following the susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered framework. The epidemiological and economic parameters derived from the previous literature and field investigation. The main outcomes included avoided infectors, cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The sensitivity analyses were undertaken to assess uncertainty. Findings In scenario I and II, the isolation-and-quarantine averted 1696 and 1990 humans infected respectively at the cost of US$12 428 and US$58 555, both with negative value of ICERs. The joint strategy of personal protection and isolation-and-quarantine could avert one more case than single isolation-and-quarantine with additional cost of US$ 166 871 and US$180 140 respectively. The effectiveness of isolation-and-quarantine decreased as lowering quarantine probability and increasing delay-time. Especially in scenario II, when the quarantine probability was less than 25%, the number of infections raised sharply; when the quarantine delay-time reached six days, more than a quarter of individuals would be infected in the community. The strategy including community containment could protect more lives and was cost-effective, when the number of imported cases was no less than 65, or the delay-time of quarantine was more than five days, or the quarantine probability was below 25%, based on current assumptions. Interpretation The isolation-and-quarantine was the most cost-effective intervention. However, personal protection and isolation-and-quarantine was the optimal strategy averting more infectors than single isolation-and-quarantine. Certain restrictions should be considered, such as more initial imported cases, longer quarantine delay-time and lower quarantine probability. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.20039644v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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