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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5267| Preliminary estimating the reproduction number of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Republic of Korea and Italy by 5 March 2020 | |
| Zhuang, Zian. Zhao, Shi. Lin, Qianying. Cao, Peihua. Lou, Yijun. Yang, Lin. Yang, Shu. He, Daihai. Xiao, Li. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.02.20030312 | |
| The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak and Italy has caused 6088 cases and 41 deaths in Republic of Korea and 3144 cases and 107 death in Italy by 5 March 2020. We modeled the transmission process in Republic of Korea and Italy with a stochastic model and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 as 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.2 (95% CI: 2.9-3.5) in Republic of Korea, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 31 January or 5 February 2020, and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.3-2.9) or 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0-3.6) in Italy, under the assumption that the exponential growth starting on 5 February or 10 February 2020. Estimates of dispersion term (k) were 10 (95% CI: 5-56) or 22 (95% CI: 8-61) in Republic of Korea, and 13 (95% CI: 5-61) or 37 (95% CI: 13-61) in Italy, and all of which imply few super-spreading events. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.02.20030312v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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