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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5259| Estimating cases of COVID-19 from Daily Death Data in Italy | |
| Raheem, Ali. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.17.20037697 | |
| COVID-19 is an emerging infectious disease which has been declared a pan- demic by the World Health Organisation. Due to limited testing capacity for this new virus, variable symptomatology the majority of infected showing non-specific mild or no symptoms it is likely current prevalence data is an underestimate. Methods: We present an estimate of the number of cases of COVID-19 com- pared to the number of confirmed case in Italy based on the daily reported deaths and information about the incubation period, time from symptom on- set to death and reported case fatality rate. Results: Our model predicts that on the 31st of January 2020 when the first 3 infected cases had been identified by Italian authorise there were already nearly 30 cases in Italy, and by the 24th of February 2020 only 0.5% cases had been detected and confirmed by Italian authorities. While official statistics had 132 confirmed case we believe a more accurate estimate would be closer to 26000. With a case-doubling period of about 2.5 days. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037697v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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