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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5232| Outbreak analysis with a logistic growth model shows COVID-19 suppression dynamics in China | |
| Zou, Yi. Pan, Stephen. Zhao, Peng. Han, Lei. Wang, Xiaoxiang. Knops, Johannes. van der Werf, Wopke. Hemerik, Lia. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.25.20043539 | |
| China experienced an outbreak of a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV2, from mid-January till mid-March 2020. Here we review the curves of epidemic growth and decline of the virus in China using a phenomenological logistic growth model to summarize the dynamics of the outbreak using three parameters that characterize the epidemics timing, rate and peak. During the initial phase, the number of cases doubled every 2.7 (range 2.2 - 4.4) days. The rate of increase in the number of reported cases peaked approximately 10 days after suppression measures were started on 23-25 January 2020. The peak in the number of reported sick cases occurred on average 18 days after the start of measures. From the time of starting measures till the peak, the number of cases increased by a factor 38.5 in the province Hubei, and by a factor 9.5 for all of China (range: 6.2-20.4 in the other provinces). Complete suppression took up to 2 months (range: 23-57d.), during which period severe restrictions, social distancing measures, testing and isolation of cases were in place. The suppression of the disease in China has been successful, acting as a beacon of hope for countries outside China where the epidemic is still in a phase of increase and authorities need to decide their course of action. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.25.20043539v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1108560.pdf | 1.38 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |