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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5146| Using early data to estimate the actual infection fatality ratio from COVID-19 in France | |
| Roques Lionel. Klein Etienne. Papaix Julien. Sar Antoine. Soubeyrand Samuel. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.22.20040915 | |
| Background. The number of screening tests carried out in France and the methodology used to target the patients tested do not allow for a direct computation of the actual number of cases and the infection fatality ratio (IFR). The main objective was to estimate the actual number of people infected with COVID-19 during the observation window in France and to deduce the IFR. Methods. We develop a 'mechanistic-statistical' approach coupling a SIR epidemiological model describing the unobserved epidemiological dynamics, a probabilistic model describing the data acquisition process and a statistical inference method. Results. The actual number of infected cases in France is probably higher than the observations: we find here a factor x 8 (95%-CI: 5-12) which leads to an IFR in France of 0.5% (95%-CI: 0.3-0.8) based on hospital death counting data. Adjusting for the number of deaths in nursing homes, we obtain an IFR of 0.8% (95%-CI: 0.45-1.25). Conclusions. This IFR is consistent with previous findings in China (0.66%) and in the UK (0.9%) and lower than the value previously computed on the Diamond Princess cruse ship data (1.3%). | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/03/24/2020.03.22.20040915.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1108357.pdf | 1.25 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |