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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/5061| Assessing the Global Tendency of COVID-19 Outbreak | |
| Liu, Qinghe. Liu, Zhicheng. Zhu, Junkai. Zhu, Yuhao. Li, Deqiang. Gao, Zefei. Zhou, Liuling. Yang, Junyan. Wang, Qiao. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.18.20038224 | |
| COVID-19 is now widely spreading around the world as a global pandemic, whereas it had been effecitvely under control in China by March 15. In this report, we estimate the global tendency of COVID-19 and analyze the associated global epidemic risk, given that the status quo is continued without further measures being taken. The results show that the global R_0, excluding China, is estimated to be 2.48 (95% CI: 1.60 -4.33). The United States, Germany, Italy, Spain, have peak values over 50,000. And the peak arrival time of all these countries is after Apr. 15, 2020. We predict that there are four regional clusters of the outbreak: Southeast Asia extending southward to Oceania, the Middle East, Western Europe and North America. Among them, Western Europe will become the major center of the outbreak. The peak values in Germany, Italy and Spain are estimated to be 98,893, 156,857 and 65,082, respectively. The U.S. is the country with the most serious outbreak trend. Based on the current situation of intervention measures, the peak value in the U.S. will reach 267,324. Above all, if the current policy environment is maintained, the cumulative number of patients worldwide will be 1,225,059 (95% CI: 486,934 -4,533,392). | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038224v3.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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