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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/4712| A deterministic epidemic model for the emergence of COVID-19 in China | |
| Wang, Meng. Qi, Jingtao. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.08.20032854 | |
| Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) broke out in Wuhan, Hubei province,China, in December 2019 and soon after Chinese health authorities tookunprecedented prevention and control measures to curb the spreading ofthe novel coronavirus-related pneumonia. We develop a mathematicalmodel based on daily updates of reported cases to study the evolutionof the epidemic. With the model, on 95% confidence level, we estimatethe basic reproduction number, R0 = 2.82 ± 0.11, time between March19 and March 21 when the effective reproduction number becoming lessthan one, the epidemic ending after April 2 and the total number ofconfirmed cases approaching 14408 ± 429 on the Chinese mainlandexcluding Hubei province. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.20032854v1.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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