Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Quantifying dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests that epidemic control and avoidance is feasible through instantaneous digital contact tracing
Luca Ferretti.
Chris Wymant.
Michelle Kendall.
Lele Zhao.
Anel Nurtay.
Lucie Abeler-Dorner.
Michael Parker.
David G Bonsall.
Christophe Fraser.
Acceso Abierto
The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analysed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without need for mass quarantines ('lock-downs') that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos

Upload archives

File SizeFormat 
1107120.pdf596.3 kBAdobe PDFView/Open