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Quantifying the Infected Population for Calibrated Intervention and Containment of the COVID-19 Pandemic
Liang Tian.
Xuefei Li.
Fei Qi.
Qian-Yuan Tang.
Viola Tang.
Jiang Liu.
Xingye Cheng.
Xuanxuan Li.
Yingchen Shi.
Haiguang Liu.
Lei-Han Tang.
Acceso Abierto
The COVID-19 has infected more than 462,000 people globally and resulted in over 20,000 deaths as of March 26, 2020. Swift government response to contain the outbreak requires accurate and continuous census of the infected population, particularly with regard to viral carriers without severe symptoms. We take on this task by converting the symptom onset time distribution, which we calibrated, into the percentage of the latent, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic groups through a novel mathematical procedure. We then estimate the reduction of the basic reproduction number $R_0$ under specific disease control practices such as contact tracing, testing and social distancing. Finally, in light of our model findings, we analyze the bell-shaped curves of epidemic evolution from various affected regions, and recommend measures to steer the pandemic to its final descent at a universal decay rate of -0.32/day.
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