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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/4606| Dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic at constant and time-dependent contact rates | |
| Kochanczyk, Marek. Grabowski, Frederic. Lipniacki, Tomasz. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.13.20035485 | |
| We constructed a simple Susceptible-Infected-Infectious-Excluded model of the spread of COVID-19. The model is parametrised only by the average incubation period, τ, and two rate parameters: contact rate, r_E, and exclusion rate, r_E. The rates can be manipulated by non-therapeutic interventions and determine the basic reproduction number, R = r_C/r_E, and, together with τ, the daily multiplication coefficient at the early exponential phase, β. Initial β determines the reduction of r_C required to contain epidemic spread. In the long-term, we consider a scenario based on typical social behaviours, in which r_C first decreases in response to a surge of daily new cases, forcing people to self-isolate, and then slowly increases when people gradually accept higher risk. Consequently, initial abrupt epidemic spread is followed by a plateau and slow regression. This scenario, although economically and socially devastating, will grant time to develop, produce, and distribute a vaccine, or at least limit daily cases to a manageable number. | |
| Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035485v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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