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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/445| Forecasting the Wuhan coronavirus (2019-nCoV) epidemics using a simple (simplistic) model - update (Feb. 8, 2020) | |
| Slav W Hermanowicz | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.04.20020461 | |
| Confirmed infection cases in mainland China were analyzed using the data up to January 28, 2020 (first 13 days of reliable confirmed cases). For the first period the cumulative number of cases followed an exponential function. However, from January 28, we discerned a downward deviation from the exponential growth. This slower-than-exponential growth was also confirmed by a steady decline of the effective reproduction number. A backtrend analysis suggested the original basic reproduction number R0 to be about 2.4 to 2.5. As data become available, we subsequently analyzed them during three consecutive periods obtaining a sequence of model predictions. All available data up were processed the same way. We used a simple logistic growth model that fitted very well with all data. Using this model and the three sets of data, we estimated maximum cases as about 21,000, 28,000 and 35,000 cases refining these predictions in near-real time. With slightly different approach (linearization in time) the estimate of maximum cases was even higher (about 65,000). Although the estimates of maximum cases increase as more data were reported all models show reaching a peak in mid-February in contrast to the unconfined exponential growth. These predictions do not account for any possible other secondary sources of infection. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The funding agencies had no role in the design and conduct of the study; collection, management, analysis, and interpretation of the data; preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript; or decision to submit the manuscript for publication. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes not applicable - all data in public domain | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020461v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
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| Forecasting the Wuhan.pdf | 425.73 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |