Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/439| A quantitative framework to define the end of an outbreak: application to Ebola Virus Disease | |
| Benido Impouma Bimandra A Djaafara Christl A Donnelly Natsuko Imai Anne Cori Esther Hamblion | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.17.20024042 | |
| Declaring the end of an outbreak is an important step in controlling infectious disease outbreaks. An objective estimation of the probability of cases arising in the future is important to reduce the risk of post-declaration flare-ups. We developed a simulation-based model to quantify that probability. We tested it on simulated Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) data and found this probability was most sensitive to the instantaneous reproduction number, the reporting rate, and the delay between symptom onset and recovery or death of the last detected case. For EVD, our results suggest that the current WHO criterion of 42 days since the outcome of the last detected case is too short and very sensitive to underreporting. The 90 days of enhanced surveillance period after the end-of-outbreak declaration is therefore crucial to capture potential flare-ups of cases. Hence, we suggest a shift to a preliminary end-of-outbreak declaration after 63 days from the symptom onset day of the last detected case. This should be followed by a 90-day enhanced surveillance, after which the official end-of-outbreak can be declared. This corresponds to less than 5% probability of flare ups in most of the scenarios examined. Our quantitative framework could be adapted to define end-of-outbreak criteria for other infectious diseases. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement BAD acknowledges a matched MRC Centre 1+3 studentship funding by Imperial College London School of Public Health. NI, CAD and AC acknowledge joint centre funding from the UK Medical Research Council and Department for International Development. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The simulated datasets used in the study are available on the github repository provided. No primary data were used. [https://github.com/andradjaafara/defining_the_end_of_an_outbreak][1] [1]: https://github.com/andradjaafara/defining_the_end_of_an_outbreak | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.17.20024042v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| A quantitative framework.pdf | 1.58 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |