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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/4366| Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) Dynamics of COVID-19 and Economic Impact | |
| Alexis Akira Toda. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11221v2.pdf | |
| I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the benchmark model, 28% of the population may be simultaneously infected at the peak, potentially overwhelming the healthcare system. The peak reduces to 6.2% under the optimal mitigation policy that controls the timing and intensity of social distancing. A stylized asset pricing model suggests that the stock price temporarily decreases by 50% in the benchmark case but shows a W-shaped, moderate but longer bear market under the optimal policy. | |
| arxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11221v2.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1106400.pdf | 1.15 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |