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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/4352| Age-structured impact of social distancing on the COVID-19 epidemic in India | |
| Rajesh Singh. R. Adhikari. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.12055v1.pdf | |
| The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures through large-scale social distancing measures appears to be the most effective means of mitigation. Here we use an age-structured SIR model with social contact matrices obtained from surveys and Bayesian imputation to study the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in India. The basic reproductive ratio R0 and its time-dependent generalization are computed based on case data, age distribution and social contact structure. The impact of social distancing measures - workplace non-attendance, school closure, lockdown - and their efficacy with durations are then investigated. A three-week lockdown is found insufficient to prevent a resurgence and, instead, protocols of sustained lockdown with periodic relaxation are suggested. Forecasts are provided for the reduction in age-structured morbidity and mortality as a result of these measures. Our study underlines the importance of age and social contact structures in assessing the country-specific impact of mitigatory social distancing. | |
| arxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.12055v1.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| 1106366.pdf | 2.43 MB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |