Por favor, use este identificador para citar o enlazar este ítem:
http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/433| Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices | |
| Joe Hilton Matt J Keeling | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.26.20028167 | |
| The outbreak of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has the potential for global spread, infecting large numbers in all countries. In this case, estimating the country-specific basic reproductive ratio is a vital first step in public-health planning. The basic reproductive ratio ( R ) is determined by both the nature of pathogen and the network of contacts through which the disease can spread - with this network determined by socio-demographics including age-structure and household composition. Here we focus on the age-structured transmission within the population, using data from China to inform age-dependent susceptibility and synthetic age-mixing matrices to inform the contact network. This allows us to determine the country-specific basic reproductive ratio as a multiplicative scaling of the value from China. We predict that R will be highest across Eastern Europe and Japan, and lowest across Africa, Central America and South-Western Asia. This pattern is largely driven by the ratio of children to older adults in each country and the observed propensity of clinical cases in the elderly. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This research was funded by: the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) (project reference 17/63/82) using UK aid from the UK Government to support global health research JH & MJK; the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) (grant reference EP/S022244/1) MJK; Health Data Research UK, which receives its funding from HDR UK Ltd (NIWA1) MJK. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the any of the funders. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The work only publically available data. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.26.20028167v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
Cargar archivos:
| Fichero | Tamaño | Formato | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimation of country-level basic.pdf | 893.62 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |