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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/430| Estimate number of individuals infected with the 2019-novel coronavirus in South Korea due to the influx of international students from countries with virus risk: a simulation study | |
| Byung Chul Chun Sheikh Taslim Ali Sukhyun Ryu Jun-sik Lim | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución | |
| 10.1101/2020.02.15.20023234 | |
| Background: In March 2020, overall, 37,000 international students from the country at risk of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection will arrive in Seoul, South Korea. Individuals from the country at risk of COVID-19 infection have been included in a home-quarantine program, but the efficacy of the program is uncertain. Methods: To estimate the possible number of infected individuals within the large influx of international students, we used a deterministic compartmental model for epidemic and perform a simulation-based search of different rates of compliance with home-quarantine. Results: Under the home-quarantine program, the total number of the infected individuals would reach 24-53 from March 17-March 20, 50-86 from March 18-March 16, and 234-343 from March 4-March 23 with the arrival of 0.1%, 0.2%, and 1% of pre-infectious individuals, in Seoul, South Korea, respectively. Our findings indicated when incoming international students showed strict compliance with quarantine, epidemics were less likely to occur in Seoul, South Korea. Conclusion: To mitigate possible epidemics, additional efforts to improve the compliance of home-quarantine are warranted along with other containment policies. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement Not applicable ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Not applicable | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.15.20023234v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Estimate number of individuals infected.pdf | 318.29 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |