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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/4290| Modeling for Corona Virus Outbreak in IRAN | |
| Maryam Moghadami. Maryam Moghadami. Mohammad Hassanzadeh. ka wa. Aziz Hedayati. Mila Malekolkalami. | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.24.20041095 | |
| Background: As the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) is a worldwide pandemic it is rapidly expanding in Iran realtime analyses of epidemiological data are needed to increase situational awareness and inform interventions. In this study we built a predictive model based on the cumulative trend of new cases and deaths for the top five provinces. we will also look at modeling the trends for confirmed cases deaths and recovered for the whole country. Method: In this study we have chosen to apply the exponential smoothing model to iteratively forecast future values of a regular time seires from weighted averages of past daily values of the series. This method is exponential because the value of each level is influenced by every preceeding actual value to an exponentially decreasing degree more recent values are given a greater weight. The available data is too small to identify seasonal patterns and make predictable variation in value, such as annual fluctuation in temperature relative to the season. Trend is a tendency in the data to increase or decrease over time. Results: If no control measures are put in place it is expected that over 40000 would be infected in Tehran around the middle of June. However if control measures were implemented with a high degree of success one would expect the spread of the COV19 virus would peak at the start of April with a downward trend dropping off by the end of May (70 days). In the scenario that no further measures are implemented, one would expect the spread of COVID19 to continue on a gentle incline reaching 21000 by mid-June. The same process has been applied to review the confirmed deaths and recovered dataset. The forecast has been carried out for the next 30 days a shorter timeframe has been selected as there is a high probability that the Iranian New Years celebration Farvardin first month of Spring (30th March in Western calendar) will have an impact on the infection rate following the event. The best predictive model predicts the confirmed cases to be in the range of 35000 70000 with the number of reported COVDI-19 deaths to be between 3000 5000 and 5000 30000 of recovered cases. Conclusions: Modeling outbreak ofCovid19 shows that the number of patients and deaths is still increasing. Contagious diseases follow an exponential model and the same be Haves this one. This is because the virus can spread to others and finally each person turns into a carrier of the virus and transmit it to another person. Disease control depends on disconnection and social distancing. In addition many factors are effective in stopping the disease. These include citizens participation in the prevention process health education the effectiveness of instructive traditions environmental conditions and so on. | |
| www.medrxiv.org | |
| 2020 | |
| Artículo | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20041095v2.full.pdf | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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