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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/416| A data-driven assessment of early travel restrictions related to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 within mainland China | |
| Peng Ji Qitong Hu Jiachen Ye Yamir Moreno Alberto Aleta | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.05.20031740 | |
| Two months after it was firstly reported, the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19 has already spread worldwide. However, the vast majority of reported infections have occurred in China. To assess the effect of early travel restrictions adopted by the health authorities in China, we have implemented an epidemic metapopulation model that is fed with mobility data corresponding to 2019 and 2020. This allows to compare two radically different scenarios, one with no travel restrictions and another in which mobility is reduced by a travel ban. Our findings indicate that i) travel restrictions are an effective measure in the short term, however, ii) they are ineffective when it comes to completely eliminate the disease. The latter is due to the impossibility of removing the risk of seeding the disease to other regions. Our study also highlights the importance of developing more realistic models of behavioral changes when a disease outbreak is unfolding. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement YM acknowledges partial support from the Government of Aragon, Spain through grant E36-17R (FENOL), and by MINECO and FEDER funds (FIS2017-87519-P). AA and YM acknowledge support from Intesa Sanpaolo Innovation Center. PJ acknowledges Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai, Eastern Scholar and NSFC 269 (11701096). The funders had no role in study design, data collection, and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes All the data used in this article can be downloaded from their original source. The links can be found in the references list. | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031740v2 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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