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Transmission potential of COVID-19 in Iran
Shayesterh R. Ferdosi
Isaac Chun-Hai Fung
Kamalich Muniz-Rodriguez
Yiseul Lee
Sylvia K. Ofori
Gerardo Chowell
Amna Tariq
Novel Coronavirus
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
10.1101/2020.03.08.20030643
We computed reproduction number of COVID-19 epidemic in Iran using two different methods. We estimated R0 at 3.6 (95% CI, 3.2, 4.2) (generalized growth model) and at 3.58 (95% CI, 1.29, 8.46) (estimated epidemic doubling time of 1.20 (95% CI, 1.05, 1.44) days) respectively. Immediate social distancing measures are recommended. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement GC acknowledges support from NSF grant 1414374 as part of the joint NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases program. ICHF acknowledges salary support from the National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (19IPA1908208). This article is not part of ICHF’s CDC-sponsored projects. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The data used in this paper is publicly available. We also provide the data in Table S1 in the Technical Appendix.
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
2020
Preimpreso
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.08.20030643v1
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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