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Epidemiology of seasonal coronaviruses: Establishing the context for COVID-19 emergence
Jim McMenamin
Rory R. Gunson
Sema Nickbakhsh
Diogo F.P. Marques
Pablo Murcia
Antonia Ho
Novel Coronavirus
Acceso Abierto
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas
10.1101/2020.03.18.20037101
Public health preparedness for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging in the absence of setting-specific epidemiological data. Here we describe the epidemiology of seasonal human coronaviruses (sCoVs) and other cocirculating viruses in the West of Scotland, UK. We analyzed routine diagnostic data for >70,000 episodes of respiratory illness tested molecularly for multiple respiratory viruses between 2005 and 2017. Statistical associations with patient age and sex differed between CoV-229E, CoV-OC43 and CoV-NL63. Furthermore, the timing and magnitude of sCoV outbreaks did not occur concurrently and coinfections were not reported. With respect to other cocirculating respiratory viruses, we found evidence of positive, rather than negative, interactions with sCoVs. These findings highlight the importance of considering cocirculating viruses in the differential diagnosis of COVID-19. Further work is needed to establish the occurrence/degree of cross-protective immunity conferred across sCoVs and with COVID-19, as well as the role of viral coinfection in COVID-19 disease severity. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was funded by the Medical Research Council of the UK. ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes The patient-level data used in this study are available upon request to NHS Scotland (https://www.informationgovernance.scot.nhs.uk/ pbpphsc/home/for-applicants/). Aggregated forms of summary data may be made available upon request to the corresponding author.
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
2020
Preimpreso
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20037101v1
Inglés
VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS
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