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Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend;A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread
Qasim Muhammad.
Ahmad Waqas.
Yoshida Minami.
Gould Maree.
Yasir Muhammad.
Acceso Abierto
Objective: The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has advanced into 197 countries and territories leaving behind a total of 372,757 confirmed cases and 16231 deaths. Methods: One the basis of WHO situation reports data of COVID-19 along with daily official reports from the Japan, China and the Korea we modeled the spread of COVID19 by using the Successive Approximation Method. We defined the two state of data to find the mean ratio (η) of the present cases count to the sum of previous and present cases. This ratio further predicts the future state of COVID-19 pandemic. Results: The mean ratio (η) of expected cases were found 0.485, while the mean ratio for deaths was found to be 0.49. We calculated worldwide expected lower bound value for confirmed cases 247007 cases with maximum limit of 1667719 cases and minimum deaths count 8660 with upper limit of 117397 deaths in next 30 days. While in the case of Iran, a large increase in the number of deaths are expected in the upcoming 30 days with lower bound value of 1140 deaths and maximum value of 598478 deaths. Interpretation: Iran whole population is on risk.
Appears in Collections:Artículos científicos

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