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http://conacyt.repositorioinstitucional.mx/jspui/handle/1000/394| Now-casting the COVID-19 epidemic: The use case of Japan, March 2020 | |
| Michael Hoehle Stephan Gloeckner Gerard Krause | |
| Novel Coronavirus | |
| Acceso Abierto | |
| Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas | |
| 10.1101/2020.03.18.20037473 | |
| Background Reporting delays in disease surveillance impair the ability to assess the current dynamic of an epidemic. In continuously updated epidemic curves, case numbers for the most recent epidemic week or day usually appear to be lower than the previous, suggesting a decline of the epidemic. In reality, the epidemic curve may still be on the rise, because reporting delay prevents the most recent cases to appear in the case count. In context of the COVID-19 epidemic and for countries planning large international gatherings, such as the Summer Olympic Games in Japan 2020, the ability to assess the actual stage of an epidemic is of outmost importance. Methods We applied now-casting onto COVID-19 data provided by the nCoV-2019 Data Working Group to evaluate the .true count of cases, by taking into account reporting delays occurring between date of symptom onset and date of confirmation. Findings We calculated a decrease of reporting delay, from a median delay of ten days in calendar week four 2020 to six days in calendar week eight, resulting in an overall mean of 4.3 days. The confidence intervals of the now-casting indicated an increase of cases in the last reporting days, while case country in that same time period suggested a decline. Interpretation As a specific use case this tool may be of particular value for the challenging risk assessment and risk communication in the context of the Summer Olympic Games in Japan 2020 and similar situations elsewhere. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement The work of Michael Höhle was supported by the Swedish Research Council (2015_05182_VR). ### Author Declarations All relevant ethical guidelines have been followed; any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained and details of the IRB/oversight body are included in the manuscript. Yes All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes We (the authors) had access to all data at all stages of our research. We will include links and data that will make our research reproducable for others. <https://github.com/gstephan30/nowcasting_COVID19> <https://helmholtz-epid.shinyapps.io/nowcasting_dashboard/> | |
| Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press | |
| 2020 | |
| Preimpreso | |
| https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20037473v1 | |
| Inglés | |
| VIRUS RESPIRATORIOS | |
| Aparece en las colecciones: | Artículos científicos |
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| Now-casting the COVID.pdf | 581.99 kB | Adobe PDF | Visualizar/Abrir |